If Pawar merger speculation is true, then NDA gains & INDIA bloc takes a hit

As murmurs grow louder about a possible reunion between the two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) — one led by party patriarch Sharad Pawar and the other by his nephew and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar — political observers are closely watching the implications this could have for national and state politics.

Though there is no authentic statement on this speculation and nobody is confirming that this merger may happen, but as they say anything is possible in politics, many political analysts are making their guesses.

If at all this merger materializes, it will be a significant boost for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), both in terms of electoral strength and optics. At the same time, it would deal a heavy blow to the INDIA bloc — the opposition alliance that is already grappling with internal contradictions, leadership tussles, and poor coordination after a notable performance in the 2024 general elections. Already INDIA block partners Congress and AAP are at loggerhead after the defeat of Congress in Haryana and AAP in Delhi.

What the NDA may gain

A unified NCP under the NDA umbrella would immediately expand the coalition's reach among Maratha, OBC, and rural voter bases in Maharashtra — areas where Sharad Pawar’s influence remains intact despite the split. It would also signal that the BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, continues to dominate the political chessboard by pulling even entrenched regional leaders into its orbit.

In the 2024 Assembly elections, Ajit Pawar’s NCP won 41 seats, and a merger would add organizational muscle and grassroots workers from Sharad Pawar’s side, giving the NDA near-total dominance in key districts.

Moreover, Sharad Pawar has been seen as the architect and strategist behind anti-BJP alliances. His inclusion — even indirectly — in an NDA-aligned NCP would symbolically damage the INDIA bloc’s credibility.

With crucial local body elections coming up, a combined NCP can help the BJP tighten its grip on rural Maharashtra, historically a Sharad Pawar stronghold.

INDIA Bloc: United in opposing BJP but divided in strategy

For the INDIA bloc — already plagued by unresolved leadership questions and ideological incoherence — a NCP merger would be a demoralizing blow if this merger happens.

While there is no official confirmation of a merger yet, recent gestures — including CM Devendra Fadnavis’s praise for Sharad Pawar — suggest the ice is thawing. The upcoming local body elections may serve as a trigger or test run for broader political realignment.

If the NCP factions do reunite under the NDA banner, it will not only consolidate BJP’s hold over Maharashtra but also send shockwaves through the national opposition. In a political environment where perception often shapes reality, such a development would be a psychological win for the NDA and a crushing setback for the INDIA bloc.