Will Chirag & Owaisi become the dark horses of the Bihar election?

As Bihar gears up for the upcoming assembly elections, two names are dominating the political discussions in Bihar are Chirag Paswan, Union Minister & chief of Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and Asaduddin Owaisi, head of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM).

With their assertive stances, both leaders are emerging as serious disruptors, giving sleepless nights not just to the NDA but also to the INDIA bloc.

Chirag Paswan: The challenger from within

Once seen as a political novice riding on his father Ram Vilas Paswan's legacy, Chirag Paswan has now carved out his own space in Bihar’s politics. His recent moves and fiery rhetoric have turned him into a central figure, especially within NDA dynamics.

"बिहारी अब और कितनी हत्याओं की भेंट चढ़ेंगे? समझ से परे है कि बिहार पुलिस की जिम्मेदारी क्या है?"

—Chirag Paswan on X (formerly Twitter), July 12

He posted this despite being part of NDA and a union minister and his post was seen as a political attack on CM Nitish Kumar showcasing the growing friction between Paswan and the JD(U). His remarks not only reflect the public sentiment on rising crime but also indicate his willingness to distance himself from Nitish, while staying aligned with the BJP-led NDA.

Owaisi says: one-sided love not going to happen

While Chirag threatens to unsettle the NDA from within, AIMIM Chief Asaduddin Owaisi is shaking up the INDIA bloc from the outside. Ruling out any alliance with the opposition coalition

In 2020, AIMIM had surprised many by winning 5 out of the 20 seats it contested, primarily in the Muslim-majority Seemanchal region. Although four MLAs later defected to RJD, the episode highlighted Owaisi’s growing base among Muslim voters disillusioned with the traditional MY (Muslim-Yadav) formula of the RJD.

Now, if Oaiwai plans a third front, or plans to contest independently, focusing on Seemanchal’s 24 seats, and possibly carving into the Mahagathbandhan’s vote share.

Advantage to NDA?

Political analysts suggest that AIMIM's presence could lead to a direct split in Muslim votes, weakening the Mahagathbandhan. In 2020, AIMIM garnered 14.28% votes in the 20 constituencies it contested, a significant chunk that could tilt the outcome in close fights.

While INDIA bloc leaders remain tight-lipped, branding AIMIM as “vote katwa” (vote divider), this strategy may backfire, especially if Owaisi successfully mobilizes Seemanchal’s electorate around his narrative.

At the same time, BJP and NDA might quietly benefit from the fragmentation of the opposition votes and there may be a scenario where both Chirag and Owaisi end up playing kingmakers.