A closer look at the data from the results of the Dalit-dominated seats in the recently concluded Delhi Assembly elections reveals that the BJP has managed to breach the impregnable fort of AAP. This time, out of the 12 SC reserved seats in the Delhi Assembly, BJP won 4 seats: Bawana, Madipur, Mangolpuri, and Trilokpuri.

While this may seem like a small gain to some, given that AAP had won all 12 seats in the last two elections (2020 and 2015), this win of 4 seats should give AAP more reason to worry.

It is important to note that BJP won Mangolpuri for the first time.

The Congress party’s Dalit outreach has not resonated with the voters, as the party failed to win a single seat this time as well, dashing the hopes of those who thought Dalits might shift to Congress.

AAP wins 8 of the 12 reserved seats

AAP, which had won all 12 seats in the last two elections, secured 8 seats this time, but the victory margins have reduced in several areas. For instance, the party won Sultanpur Majra in 2020 with 42.9% of the votes, but this time, it won the seat with just 15.2%.

Similarly, in Ambedkar Nagar, AAP saw a sharp decline in its vote percentage: in 2020, the party won with 28.1%, but this time, it dropped to just 4.4%.

In Karol Bagh, too, the party’s vote percentage fell, winning with only 7.3%, compared to 29.3% in 2020.

BJP wins seats narrowly won by AAP last time

The BJP has won seats this time that AAP had secured with lower vote percentages in the 2020 elections. For example, in Bawana, AAP won in 2020 with just 5.8%, but this time, BJP managed to win the seat.

Similarly, in Trilokpuri, where AAP had received 9.4% of the votes last time to win the seat, BJP emerged victorious, albeit narrowly, with a margin of just 0.3%.

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B.R. Ambedkar-related statement controversy

The results in these SC seats also reflect the voters' reaction to the controversial statement about B.R. Ambedkar made by Home Minister Amit Shah. Congress made it a major issue with protests inside and outside Parliament, while AAP released AI-generated content praising Arvind Kejriwal using Ambedkar’s name, hoping to benefit from the controversy.

Role of Congress

The Congress party itself may not have had the strength to achieve success on these seats independently. However, its vote share likely contributed to weakening AAP’s position and paving the way for its defeat in these constituencies.