Bihar : Real battle will shape up between RJD & BJP

With many big and small parties in the fray, the real contest in the Bihar elections will not be between the RJD and JD(U), but between the RJD and BJP.

There is no doubt that the current government is headed by Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal (United), who remains one of the tallest leaders in state politics apart from Lalu Prasad Yadav—now largely retired from active politics. However, Janata Dal (United) appears to be losing the support of the people, as reflected in data from successive elections.

The fall and fall of JD(U)’s vote share

In the 2020 elections, JD(U) secured 15.7% of the vote. This was a decline from 17.3% in 2015 and 22.6% in 2010. Over a decade, the party lost nearly 7% of its voter base, indicating a steady downward trend in public support.

Despite this, Nitish Kumar continues to be one of Bihar’s most prominent and popular leaders. This remains JD(U)’s biggest strength. However, with several videos circulating on social media suggesting his deteriorating health, questions have emerged about whether he will remain the natural choice to lead the JD(U)-BJP alliance.

BJP emerging as the main alternative?

The BJP has been steadily gaining ground in a state historically dominated by offshoots of the erstwhile Janata Dal since the 1990s. It’s worth recalling that leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Sharad Yadav, and George Fernandes were once part of a united Janata Dal, which rose to power after the fall of the Rajiv Gandhi government. Over time, the party splintered into several factions including RJD, JD(U), and George Fernandes’ Samta Party. These groups and their leaders have largely defined Bihar politics for the past few decades.

However, with the rise of Narendra Modi and shifting national political dynamics, the BJP has become increasingly assertive. In the 2020 elections, the BJP secured 19.8% of the votes—around 4% more than JD(U). In 2015, it had 25%, and in 2010, 16.5%, showing a general upward trend over the past decade.

Yet, the BJP still lacks a mass-appeal leader in Bihar on the scale of Nitish Kumar. The passing of veteran leader Sushil Kumar Modi was a major loss. Currently, the party is led by Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary, a prominent leader in his own right.

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RJD maintains dominance on Bihar’s political landscape

The RJD continues to be the largest party in the Bihar Assembly, having won 75 seats with 23.5% of the vote in the 2020 elections. The BJP follows closely with 74 seats and 19.8% of the vote—hence the observation that the real contest is between RJD and BJP.

RJD's vote share has remained relatively stable over the past three elections. In both 2015 and 2010, the party secured 18.8% of the vote, showing a slight increase in 2020.