While we are focused on Kaun Banega Mukhyamantri in Maharashtra, the performance of the Jan Suraaj Party in the Bihar assembly by-elections demands our attention and some data analysis. The party, founded by election strategist Prashant Kishore, contested in 4 assembly seats that went to bypolls and secured a total of 66,523 votes across all 4 seats.

Though the party candidates lost their deposits in 3 out of 4 seats, the party’s performance caught the attention of the public, election analysts, and other political parties. The Jan Suraaj Party contested in Ramgarh, Tarari, Imamganj, and Belaganj, and while its performance can be described as far from satisfactory, it was enough to ring alarm bells for its competitors.

Despite its lackluster performance, Jan Suraaj party alarms other parties

Imamganj - Drew attention of the voters

The party's best performance was in Imamganj. Here, party candidate Jitendra Paswan secured 37,103 votes, which is almost half of the total votes garnered by the party across all 4 seats. His vote percentage was 22.63%. Hindustan Awami Morcha's Deepa Kumari won this seat with 53,435 votes. Deepa Kumari is the daughter-in-law of Jitan Ram Manjhi, a current union minister in the Modi government and a former CM of Bihar. Jan Suraaj Party candidate Jitendra is a well-known personality in the area due to his social work.

His performance, which divided the anti-NDA votes, was a significant blow to the RJD, whose candidate Raushan Kumar received 47,490 votes. Had Jan Suraaj not been in the fray, the poll outcome could have been different. However, Prashant Kishore has a different vision for the development of Bihar, often criticizing RJD over nepotism and targeting Tejaswi Yadav.

In the 2020 assembly elections, Jitan Ram Manjhi won this seat while RJD's Udai Narayan Choudhary came second. Jitendra Paswan, who was then contesting as a candidate from the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, could secure only 1.4% of the votes.

If you compare the 1.4% of votes from 2020 to the 22.63% votes in 2024, there is clear progress. It may be slow, but it is certainly an advancement.

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Belaganj - turned into a triangular contest

In Belaganj too, the party gave a tough fight to both the NDA and RJD, making it a triangular contest. The contest was mainly between JDU-NDA's Manorama Devi and RJD’s Vishwanath Yadav, the son of MP Surendra Yadav. Yadav had vacated the seat for his son; however, Manorama Devi defeated him in the triangular contest. Jan Suraaj Party's Mohammed Amjad added spice to the election, gathering 17,285 votes and securing 10.66% of the votes.

Others

The party also contested in Tarari and Ramgarh, securing less than 4% of the votes in these seats, but it holds the potential to become a case study for political enthusiasts.

Conclusion

Just a year ago, this party was not on the election scene, and now, whatever percentage of votes it is securing, it is taking a share of the voting pie. Analysts believe that, for now, it is eating into the share of the INDIA alliance (mainly the RJD), which has allowed NDA candidates to win. However, once the party has boots on the ground, the day is not far when the Jan Suraaj Party will become a challenge to the NDA as well.

Pollster Prashant Kishor had formally launched this party in October 2024 which was a culmination of his Jan Suraaj Campaign. He is known for organizing poll campaigns for the BJP, Trinamool Congress and was also associated with Janta Dal ( United). Hover to chart his own political journey, he had quit as a poll strategist and had also embarked upon a padyatra to connect with the masses in Bihar. His party intends to fight next assembly elections of Bihar next year.